WTPA42 PHFO 160900
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
1100 PM HST WED AUG 15 2007

CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM HFO AND
JTWC...AND 3.1 FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT).
MANUAL LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN LOCALLY RUN ADT GIVES
1.0. THE BURST OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHEARED OFF BY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY
REGENERATION OF THE CONVECTION. ALL THAT IS LEFT IS A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD SWIRL...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A
GENEROUS 30 KNOTS.   
 
AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE MUCH WEAKENED FLOSSIE IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
FLOW...AND WILL NOT REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL
CONVECTIVE FLAREUP MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT WILL BE
QUICKLY SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE 00Z FIX POSITION.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 17.1N 160.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.1N 162.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N 164.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 17.7N 167.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 18.2N 170.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 19.3N 175.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 20.1N 178.9E    10 KT...DISSIPATED
120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.4N 173.5E    10 KT...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWNING