WTPA42 PHFO 160231 TCDCP2 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007 500 PM HST WED AUG 15 2007 CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM HFO AND SAB...3.1 FROM UW/CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND 2.5 FROM JTWC... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 51002 MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KT AT 1500 UTC...AND FLOSSIE/S SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THESE OBSERVATIONS. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 40 KT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW...AS IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE IN THE VERTICAL DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE THAT IS AVAILABLE... AS MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE FLOSSIE AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A REMANT LOW IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW A PATH SIMILAR TO THE BAMS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. DESPITE MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT FLOSSIE FROM INTENSIFYING. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN THE SHEAR ABOVE FLOSSIE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RECENT EMERGENCE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY PORTEND A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.6N 159.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.9N 161.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 163.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.6N 165.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 19.1N 168.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 19/0000Z 20.1N 173.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0000Z 20.6N 179.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.9N 175.1E 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD/CRAIG