WTPA42 PHFO 151445
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
500 AM HST WED AUG 15 2007

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
 
FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMING. THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO EMERGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. AT 1150 UTC...NOAA BUOY 51002...ONLY ABOUT 30 MILES WEST OF
THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE...WAS REPORTING NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 23
KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1011.9 MB. FLOSSIE MUST HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY TO BE HAVING SO LITTLE IMPACT AT THE
BUOY. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 1130 UTC WERE 3.0 AND 3.5. WE WILL GO
WITH THE WEAKER ESTIMATE...45 KT...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE BUOY
DATA AND THE STRONG SHEARING. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS STRONG SHEAR
CONTINUING OVER FLOSSIE AS IT TRACKS WEST SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE
SYSTEM CAN RE-INTENSIFY. WE ARE FORECASTING FLOSSIE TO WEAKEN
STEADILY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 96 HOURS.

WE HAD EXPECTED FLOSSIE TO MOVE FASTER AND ALONG A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AS IT WEAKENED AND IT HAS DONE SO. ON THIS PACKAGE WE
FORECAST THE WESTWARD TRACK TO CONTINUE TILL FLOSSIE DISSIPATES. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 17.4N 157.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 159.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.9N 162.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 165.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.1N 167.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 19.9N 172.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 20.4N 177.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     20/1200Z 20.6N 177.7E    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON