WTPA42 PHFO 150902
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW TEARING FLOSSIE APART.

HURRICANE FLOSSIE SURPRISED US BY MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS LONG
AS IT DID...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS NOW DOWN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO
993 MB AT 0513 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE TOPS OF THE
SYSTEM SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS
NOW EMERGING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. WITH STRONG
SHEAR CONTINUING OVER FLOSSIE WE ARE FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A REMNANT LOW REMAINING BY 120 HOURS.

THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASED QUITE A BIT ON THIS
PACKAGE BUT WE SEE NO REASON TO DEPART FROM A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK.
WE HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDED IT UP A
BIT TO REFLECT A GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL STEERING AS
FLOSSIE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 17.5N 156.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.9N 157.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N 159.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N 161.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N 163.9W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N 168.9W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.3N 174.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     20/0600Z 22.0N 179.8E    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON