WTPA42 PHFO 141505
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
500 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

AFTER A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND LAST EVENING...FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NO EYE HAS BEEN VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE DATA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT NEXRAD AND RECON DATA
STILL SHOW A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES GAVE A CI NUMBER OF 5.0. AND A 1430 UTC RECON FIX REPORTED
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 98 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO AFFECT THE
BIG ISLAND AS FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLAND TODAY. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE BIG ISLAND. WE
STILL EXPECT THAT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE
ISLANDS EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND. A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD
CHANGE THIS EXPECTATION...BUT WITH GOOD RADAR IMAGERY WE ARE QUITE
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST
NORTHWEST TRACK. WE HAVE KEPT THE TRACK NEARLY THE SAME EXCEPT FOR
A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. RADAR FIXES SHOW A SLOWER
FORWARD MOTION NOW AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THE FORWARD MOTION
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADY WEAKENING AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THAT
TREND.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 16.9N 154.1W    95 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.6N 155.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.4N 157.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.2N 160.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 162.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 166.7W    40 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N 170.6W    35 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 23.6N 174.3W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON