WTPA42 PHFO 131530
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
500 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP. DESPITE HINTS THAT THE 
HURRICANE MIGHT MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES...AND THAT 
IT WOULD EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IT 
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB WERE 6.0...WHILE HFO REPORTED 5.5. THE 
ADT AT 1200 UTC IS 6.2...WHICH SUGGESTS A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED OF 120 KT. 

THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ACCELERATED THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE 
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE GFDL 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK 
FORECAST...INTENSITY AND RADII...THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON 
TUESDAY. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG 
ISLAND OF HAWAII. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE BIG ISLAND LATER 
TODAY. THIS MAY TAKE THE FORM OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IF THE 
PRESENT TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING. AT THE MOMENT...THE 
ISLANDS FROM MAUI COUNTY TO KAUAI COUNTY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE 
ANY TYPES OF WATCHES. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION OF THE 
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH MIGHT RESULT IN WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...FOR 
ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.9N 149.5W   120 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W   115 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 153.8W   110 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 155.8W   105 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.3N 157.8W   100 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.7N 161.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 20.9N 165.2W    70 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 22.2N 170.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON