WTPA42 PHFO 130917
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FLOSSIE ARE 6.0 FROM SAB 
AND JTWC...AND 5.5 FROM HFO. THE 0600 UTC ADT ESTIMATE IS 5.9. 
THEREFORE...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THIS HURRICANE WILL BE 
MAINTAINED AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
REMAINS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...AND THE APPROXIMATELY 20 NM DIAMETER EYE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL.

THE LATEST MOVEMENT OF FLOSSIE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ALL 
OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY CLUSTERED 
THROUGH 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...THERE IS A WIDER SPREAD IN THE TRACK 
FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE 120 HOUR POSITION WAS ADJUSTED 
SLIGHTLY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE IMPACT OF INCREASING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO FEEL WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 TO 36 HOURS. RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING 
THIS SHEAR MAY BE LESS THAN WAS EXPECTED IN THE RUNS MADE 24 HOURS 
AGO. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FLOSSIE REMAINS 
UNCERTAIN. 

THE CURRENT TRACK...INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECAST MAY REQUIRE 
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 14.4N 148.2W   115 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.1N 149.9W   110 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 152.1W   105 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N 154.2W   100 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.6N 156.1W    90 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.1N 159.8W    75 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 163.7W    60 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 21.8N 168.4W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON