WTPA41 PHFO 230230
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
500 PM HST SUN JUL 22 2007

OKAY...TWO PLUS DAYS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
20 TO 25 KT HAS FINALLY DONE ITS JOB. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OF COSME HAS AT LAST SEPARATED ITSELF FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION...SOMETHING IT COULD NEVER QUITE ACCOMPLISH UNTIL NOW.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW SINGLE CELLS EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THEY
ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT BOTH SAB AND PHFO DECLARED COSME
UNCLASSIFIABLE. SOME CONVECTION MAY IN THE FUTURE POP UP CLOSER TO
THE CENTER...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...WE CAN EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO NOT LAST VERY LONG.

COSME IS MOVING TO THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH 48
HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THE DAY.

AS ONE CAN SEE BELOW...FORECAST INTENSITIES REMAIN AT 25 KT. THIS IS
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE. 
 
COSME WILL PASS ABOUT 40 NM SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
6 HOURS. IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ATOLL WILL SEE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM CPHC ON COSME UNLESS THE SYSTEM
REGENERATES. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 16.1N 169.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.2N 172.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N 175.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.9N 179.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 178.0E    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG