WTPA41 PHFO 220237
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
500 PM HST SAT JUL 21 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER IN THE FACE OF 
20 KT OF NORTHWEST SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE UW/CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSIS.
NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT THE DEPRESSION IS HOLDING ITS OWN.
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM PHFO AND SAB ARE 1.5 AND 2.0...
RESPECTIVELY...AND JTWC RATED THE SYSTEM UNCLASSIFIABLE. SINCE THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT DID 24
HOURS AGO WHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS PASSING SOUTH OF BUOY 51004
WITH WINDS OF CLOSE TO 30 KT...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF 30
KT IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A VERY CONSISTENT 270/17. OUR TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH COSME
CONTINUING TO HEAD WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE VAST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OUR 
TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO 
JOHNSTON ISLAND IN JUST OVER 24 HOURS. AS COSME APPROACHES THE
DATELINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN GRADUALLY 
GAINING LATITUDE AS IT REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 

COSME IS GRADUALLY LEAVING THE UPPER LOW NEAR 23N 156W AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH BEHIND. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR SLOWLY
RELAXING OVER THE CYCLONE...AND REACHING A MINIMUM AS IT PROGRESSES
UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE
OVER AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. IF THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AGAINST THE NEAR-TERM SHEAR...THERE IS
A SHORT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG AND
WEST OF THE DATELINE AFTER 72 HOURS THAT SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE THE
END OF COSME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 16.4N 161.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 164.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.7N 168.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 172.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 175.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 178.0E    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD