WTPA41 PHFO 210248
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
500 PM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

IT IS CERTAINLY NOT DIFFICULT TO FIND THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER 
OF COSME ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OVERALL SATELLITE 
PRESENTATION IS NO BETTER THAN SIX HOURS AGO. THE DEPRESSION PASSED 
ABOUT 65 NM SOUTH OF BUOY 51004 AT ABOUT 20Z...WITH 13 FOOT SEAS AND 
HIGHEST SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 27 KTREPORTED. DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES RANGED FROM 2.5 FROM SAB AND 
PHFO...AND 1.5 FROM JTWC. WE WILL MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK 
PHILOSOPHY...AS COSME CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW TO MID 
LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 33N. THE 
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY BRINGS COSME A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AS 
IT REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN 
ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

COSME IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF 26C...AND IS SUFFERING FROM 20 TO 
30 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACCORDING TO THE UW/CIMMS SHEAR 
ANALYSIS. THE SHEAR IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE 
CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY 
WARMER WATER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR 
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. IT IS 
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THESE HARSH 
CONDITIONS. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DOWNWARD...BUT IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT COSME WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 16.5N 154.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 16.6N 157.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N 160.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.9N 163.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.3N 167.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 18.1N 173.4W    25 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 178.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     26/0000Z 21.8N 176.8E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD