WTPA41 PHFO 202059
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE 1605Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT COSME HAD BECOME AN 
OPEN WAVE...THE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THERE MAY BE AMBIGUITIES IN THE WIND DATA BASED ON ITS GFS FIRST-
GUESS INPUT. 

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 2.5...WITH JTWC 
INDICATING 1.5. SUSTAINED WINDS AT BUOY 51004...ABOUT 60 NM NNW OF 
COSME...HAVE INCREASED TO 27 KT. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM 
AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. COSME CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...IF COSME HOLDS TOGETHER...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN GAINING LATITUDE A LITTLE FASTER AS IT REACHES 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 25.5C...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY 
MOVING OVER WARMER WATER DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS...
THE SSTS INCREASE MORE QUICKLY ALONG THE TRACK. HOWEVER...WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WITH 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH 
COSME...CONTINUING TO KEEP MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE 
FIRST 60 HOURS OR SO. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR 
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 60 HOURS...IF THE SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE THE 
SHEAR.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 51004 
HAS SPIKED AND IS NOW READING 13 FEET. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE 
INCLUDED A 90 NM RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 16.6N 152.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 16.7N 155.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 158.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.2N 161.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.6N 164.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 171.1W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 19.4N 176.8W    35 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 20.3N 178.3E    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD