WTPA41 PHFO 200844
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
1100 PM HST THU JUL 19 2007

WHILE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER COSMES CENTER FOR THE PAST 24 
HOURS IT HAS BEEN SHEARED WHERE THE CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE
CONVECTIONS EAST EDGE BUT HAS NOT BEEN EXPOSED. MICROWAVE VIEWS
OF COSME NEAR 05Z PLACES RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ITS
LOCATION WHICH HAS SHOWN A MORE DIRECT 270 DEGREE WESTWARD MOTION. 
STRONG LOWER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH PERSUADES US
TO FURTHER PROJECT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DISTANCING ITSELF SLIGHTLY 
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BIG ISLAND BY TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE PROJECTED 
PATH NOW MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS GFDL AND ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT AT DEPRESSION LEVELS BUT FURTHER CONVECTIVE 
BANDING MAY UP IT LATER INTO MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM LEVELS. ON THE
STREGTHENING SIDE COSME IS MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY WARMER WATER...
THE 80 DEGREE SST PARALLELS 160W LONGITUDE. ON THE WEAKENING SIDE 
HIGH LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE SHEARING WEST OF 150W
LONGITUDE. THUS WE HAVE PUNTED AND KEPT THE PRESENT INTENSITY FOR 
120 HOURS. MOST MODELS KEEP THE INTENSITY IN A NARROW 25 TO 40 KNOT 
RANGE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 16.1N 149.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 16.2N 151.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 154.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.8N 158.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.8N 161.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 167.3W    30 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.2N 173.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 19.2N 179.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA