WTPA41 PHFO 200252
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
500 PM HST THU JUL 19 2007

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COSME IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 2.5.  THE SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN OVERALL APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
SO HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.
 
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 283 DEGREES AT 18 KT. THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION BUT 
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE 
TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 BUT IT STILL 
REMAINS GENERALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LESS CERTAIN. CONVECTION CONTINUES 
TO FLAIR UP MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER. COSME REMAINS OVER FAIRLY 
COOL WATER OF ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST GFDL AND
SHIP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BACK 
TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITH SHIPS INDICATING 40 KT AT 48 HOURS 
AND 45 KT OUT AT 120 HOURS. THE HWRF GUIDANCE BRINGS COSME UP TO 37 
KT IN 36 HOURS AND 47 KT OUT AT 48 HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS EXPERIMENTAL 
VERTICAL SHEAR TC INTENSITY TREND ESTIMATES SHOW LESS SHEAR OVER 
THE SYSTEM THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND INDICATED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 18 HOURS THEN BACK TO NEUTRAL IN 24 
HOURS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WATER TEMPERATURE AND A POORLY DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CENTER...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 
AFTER 60 HOURS...WE EXPECT COSME TO BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER BUT 
ALSO INTO AN AREA WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR FROM A UPPER TROUGH 
NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH OF 
THESE FACTORS WILL PREVAIL. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST 
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 72 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 16.3N 147.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 150.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.3N 153.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.8N 157.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 18.1N 160.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 18.6N 166.2W    30 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 172.1W    30 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 19.4N 177.9W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE