WTPA41 PHFO 192033 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007 1100 AM HST THU JUL 19 2007 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COSME IS LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 16 MPH. A 1748 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF 16N. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.0 TO 2.5. THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS WAS 33 KT. A 1500 UTC QUICKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BUT HAD ONE 34 KT WIND BARB ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 287 DEGREES AT 14 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE UKMET AND THE BAMD ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH COSME MOVING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. HAVE STAYED DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS BUT HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO A UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE AROUND COSME AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS OF AROUND 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST GFDL AND SHIP FORECASTS NOW SHOW COSME STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WATER TEMPERATURE OR SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WE ARE FORECASTING NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. SHIPS INTENSIFIES COSME TO 43 KT IN 120 HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT COSME IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE. THE SHEAR WILL BE GREATER THE FURTHER NORTH COSME TRAVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE INTENSITY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PAST 72 HOURS REMAINS LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.9N 145.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 151.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 154.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.9N 157.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.7N 162.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 19.3N 168.7W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 174.6W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BURKE