FOPA12 PHFO 142045 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007 2100 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HILO 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SOUTH POINT 34 70 4(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) SOUTH POINT 50 29 4(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SOUTH POINT 64 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 22 14(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) KAILUA-KONA 50 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KAHULUI 34 2 9(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) LANAI CITY 34 2 15(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LANAI CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 2 12(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51002 34 11 25(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) BUOY 51002 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HONOLULU 34 2 10(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HONOLULU 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIHUE 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) LIHUE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) 1(24) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 180N 1563W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 180N 1563W 50 83 5(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 12 180N 1563W 64 41 13(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 24 189N 1582W 34 9 68(77) 7(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 24 189N 1582W 50 1 47(48) 8(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 24 189N 1582W 64 X 18(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 36 198N 1602W 34 1 15(16) 39(55) 7(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) 36 198N 1602W 50 X 2( 2) 21(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 36 198N 1602W 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 206N 1624W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) 48 206N 1624W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 48 206N 1624W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 220N 1669W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) 72 220N 1669W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 220N 1669W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 233N 1712W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 96 233N 1712W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 96 233N 1712W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 244N 1754W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 244N 1754W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 244N 1754W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80 75 65 55 40 35 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER POWELL