FOPA12 PHFO 140856 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007 0900 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51004 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HILO 34 10 9(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SOUTH POINT 34 47 25(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SOUTH POINT 50 3 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SOUTH POINT 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 6 25(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) KAILUA-KONA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KAHULUI 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LANAI CITY 34 1 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KAUNAKAKAI 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BUOY 51002 34 3 49(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BUOY 51002 50 X 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BUOY 51002 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HONOLULU 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LIHUE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NIIHAU 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 172N 1552W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 172N 1552W 50 82 6(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 12 172N 1552W 64 35 18(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 24 180N 1573W 34 11 71(82) 6(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 24 180N 1573W 50 1 49(50) 9(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 24 180N 1573W 64 X 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 36 190N 1598W 34 X 11(11) 48(59) 7(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 36 190N 1598W 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 36 190N 1598W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 48 198N 1622W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 23(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) 48 198N 1622W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 48 198N 1622W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 210N 1660W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15) 72 210N 1660W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 72 210N 1660W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 222N 1701W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 96 222N 1701W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 96 222N 1701W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 234N 1740W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 234N 1740W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 234N 1740W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85 75 65 55 40 35 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA