FOPA12 PHFO 140250 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007 0300 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51004 34 86 X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BUOY 51004 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 2 21(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HILO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 3 59(62) 8(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SOUTH POINT 50 X 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SOUTH POINT 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KAILUA-KONA 34 1 29(30) 13(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) KAILUA-KONA 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KAILUA-KONA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) KAHULUI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X 6( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) LANAI CITY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 5(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51002 34 1 38(39) 32(71) 3(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) BUOY 51002 50 X 11(11) 26(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BUOY 51002 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HONOLULU 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LIHUE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 10(32) 1(33) X(33) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 166N 1538W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 166N 1538W 50 87 7(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 12 166N 1538W 64 55 16(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 24 176N 1562W 34 6 82(88) 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 176N 1562W 50 X 60(60) 13(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 24 176N 1562W 64 X 33(33) 12(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 36 185N 1585W 34 X 20(20) 55(75) 10(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) 36 185N 1585W 50 X 2( 2) 41(43) 12(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) 36 185N 1585W 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 48 194N 1609W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 36(59) 16(75) X(75) X(75) 48 194N 1609W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 11(40) X(40) X(40) 48 194N 1609W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) 72 211N 1652W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 10(49) 1(50) 72 211N 1652W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) 72 211N 1652W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 96 225N 1690W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) 96 225N 1690W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 96 225N 1690W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 240N 1729W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 120 240N 1729W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 240N 1729W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 105 100 95 90 85 70 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER POWELL