FOPA12 PHFO 131440 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007 1500 UTC MON AUG 13 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51004 34 9 54(63) 2(65) 1(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) BUOY 51004 50 1 21(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BUOY 51004 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HILO 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 9(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) HILO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HILO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X 6( 6) 44(50) 14(64) 4(68) X(68) X(68) SOUTH POINT 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 12(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) KAILUA-KONA 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 18(43) 5(48) X(48) X(48) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 8(27) 1(28) X(28) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 10(32) 1(33) X(33) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 11(28) 1(29) X(29) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 26(56) 10(66) 1(67) X(67) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 15(29) 1(30) X(30) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 4(29) X(29) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 5(31) 1(32) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 156N 1514W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 156N 1514W 50 88 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 12 156N 1514W 64 57 17(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 24 166N 1538W 34 3 84(87) 7(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) 24 166N 1538W 50 X 63(63) 12(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 24 166N 1538W 64 X 37(37) 13(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 36 175N 1558W 34 X 23(23) 53(76) 9(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) 36 175N 1558W 50 X 4( 4) 44(48) 12(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) 36 175N 1558W 64 X 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 48 183N 1578W 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 33(63) 14(77) 1(78) X(78) 48 183N 1578W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 11(46) 1(47) X(47) 48 183N 1578W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) 72 197N 1615W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 9(52) 2(54) 72 197N 1615W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) 72 197N 1615W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 96 209N 1652W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 5(28) 96 209N 1652W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 96 209N 1652W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 222N 1700W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 120 222N 1700W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 222N 1700W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 115 110 105 100 90 70 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON