FOPA12 PHFO 130840 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007 0900 UTC MON AUG 13 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51004 34 1 41(42) 22(64) 2(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) BUOY 51004 50 X 10(10) 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BUOY 51004 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) HILO 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 8(35) X(35) 1(36) HILO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 27(46) 11(57) 1(58) X(58) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) KAILUA-KONA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 15(42) 1(43) X(43) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 2(27) X(27) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) X(24) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 19(53) 2(55) X(55) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 1(24) X(24) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 1(19) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 1(21) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 151N 1499W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 151N 1499W 50 88 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 12 151N 1499W 64 58 15(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 24 160N 1521W 34 5 82(87) 7(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 160N 1521W 50 1 61(62) 13(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 24 160N 1521W 64 X 37(37) 12(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 36 168N 1542W 34 1 19(20) 54(74) 10(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) 36 168N 1542W 50 X 4( 4) 42(46) 11(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) 36 168N 1542W 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 48 176N 1561W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 29(60) 14(74) 1(75) X(75) 48 176N 1561W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) 48 176N 1561W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) 72 191N 1598W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 8(44) 1(45) 72 191N 1598W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) 72 191N 1598W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 96 205N 1637W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) 96 205N 1637W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 96 205N 1637W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 218N 1684W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 120 218N 1684W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 218N 1684W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 110 105 100 90 75 60 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON