FOPA12 PHFO 130245 PWSCP2 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007 0300 UTC MON AUG 13 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51004 34 1 14(15) 45(60) 6(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) BUOY 51004 50 X 2( 2) 22(24) 6(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) HILO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 12(33) 1(34) X(34) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 18(50) 1(51) X(51) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 18(35) 1(36) 1(37) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 2(20) X(20) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 2(22) 1(23) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) 1(20) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 24(43) 3(46) X(46) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) 1(19) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 146N 1488W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 146N 1488W 50 88 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 12 146N 1488W 64 57 16(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 24 156N 1510W 34 5 82(87) 7(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 156N 1510W 50 1 61(62) 13(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 24 156N 1510W 64 X 36(36) 13(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 36 165N 1533W 34 X 15(15) 59(74) 9(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86) 36 165N 1533W 50 X 3( 3) 43(46) 11(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) 36 165N 1533W 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 48 172N 1552W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 29(60) 13(73) 1(74) X(74) 48 172N 1552W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) 48 172N 1552W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) 72 187N 1589W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 6(41) 1(42) 72 187N 1589W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) 72 187N 1589W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 203N 1626W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) 96 203N 1626W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 96 203N 1626W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 211N 1670W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 120 211N 1670W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 211N 1670W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 110 105 100 90 70 55 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD/KODAMA