FOPA11 PHFO 200253 PWSCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007 0300 UTC FRI JUL 20 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 50004 34 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HILO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) BUOY 50002 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 167N 1504W 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 12 167N 1504W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 167N 1504W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 173N 1538W 34 X 14(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 24 173N 1538W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 173N 1538W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 178N 1571W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 36 178N 1571W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 178N 1571W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 181N 1603W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) 48 181N 1603W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 181N 1603W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 186N 1662W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 72 186N 1662W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 186N 1662W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 190N 1721W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 96 190N 1721W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 190N 1721W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 194N 1779W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 194N 1779W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 194N 1779W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BURKE