FOPA11 PHFO 192034 PWSCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007 2100 UTC THU JUL 19 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 50004 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) BUOY 50002 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 165N 1480W 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 12 165N 1480W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 165N 1480W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 170N 1511W 34 X 15(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 24 170N 1511W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 170N 1511W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 175N 1541W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 36 175N 1541W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 175N 1541W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 179N 1572W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) 48 179N 1572W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 179N 1572W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 187N 1629W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 72 187N 1629W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 187N 1629W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 193N 1687W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 96 193N 1687W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 193N 1687W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 197N 1746W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 197N 1746W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 197N 1746W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BURKE