FOPA11 PHFO 190845 PWSCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007 0900 UTC THU JUL 19 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 159N 1449W 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 12 159N 1449W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 159N 1449W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 164N 1479W 34 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 24 164N 1479W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 164N 1479W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 170N 1510W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 36 170N 1510W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 170N 1510W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 175N 1541W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) 48 175N 1541W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 175N 1541W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 181N 1602W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 72 181N 1602W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 181N 1602W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 184N 1661W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 96 184N 1661W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 184N 1661W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 184N 1718W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 120 184N 1718W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 184N 1718W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON