FOPA11 PHFO 190239 PWSCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007 0300 UTC THU JUL 19 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 154N 1432W 34 15 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 12 154N 1432W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 154N 1432W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 159N 1461W 34 X 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 24 159N 1461W 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 159N 1461W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 166N 1492W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 36 166N 1492W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 166N 1492W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 171N 1523W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) 48 171N 1523W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 171N 1523W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 178N 1584W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 72 178N 1584W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 178N 1584W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 182N 1645W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 96 182N 1645W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 182N 1645W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 183N 1702W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 120 183N 1702W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 183N 1702W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BURKE