WTPA45 PHFO 140910
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042006
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 13 2006

ANALYZING FOUR-C HAS BEEN RATHER PROBLEMATICAL WITH A SPREAD OF OVER
ONE DEGREE LONGITUDE IN SATELLITE FIXES AND CURRENT INTENSITIES
RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. I HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN STRONGLY ON RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES. A 13/1910 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER NEAR 13.8N 166.2W. A 14/0214 AMSUB PASS APPEARS TO SHOW A
LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 13.9N 165.9W WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND A 14/0505 PASS SEEMS TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
CENTER NEAR 13.8N 165.8W WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF EVEN
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY...RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES
HAVE MISSED FOUR-C. I WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT...IN
LINE WITH THE AVERAGE DVORAK INTENSITY FROM THE FIX AGENCIES.

THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN FORECAST
PRETTY WELL BY THE GFS WHICH SHOWS FOUR-C MOVING LITTLE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS FOUR-C GETTING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER
TROUGH... MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND RUNNING UP A COLD FRONT
MOVING DOWN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE FOLLOWED THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
STRONGLY SHEARED...FOUR-C IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH DEPRESSION FOUR-C IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT WITH ITS
WINDS...IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE FROM FOUR-C MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT.

PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW NOT ONLY
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C BUT ALSO OTHER FORECAST
PRODUCTS FROM WFO HONOLULU...AFDHFO/FXHW60 PHFO...FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE DEVELOPING WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 14.1N 165.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 165.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.1N 164.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.7N 164.1W    25 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N 163.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 161.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON