WTPA45 PHFO 140245
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042006
500 PM HST FRI OCT 13 2006

DURING THE DAY 04-C HAS TURNED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
MAINTAINED CONVECTION AND A DECENT CIRCULATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS NOW MORE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. DVORAK FIXES FROM THE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 2.5 FROM HFO
AND SAB...TO 2.0 FROM JTWC AND 1.5 FROM KGWC. SINCE I HAVENT SEEN
ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PRESENTATION...WILL KEEP 04-C AS A
30KT DEPRESSION.

NO BIG CHANGES IN OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY SCATTERED...LENDING CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THIS FORECAST. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS PRETTY MUCH KEEP 04-C
STATIONARY AND VERY WEAK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NOGAPS THEN
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME SUCH A SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR PLAUSIBLE
AND IS THE OUTLIER OF ALL THE GUIDANCE WE HAVE. GFDL WANTS TO MOVE
IT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48HRS THEN SPEEDS IT UP AND MOVES
IT NORTHEAST BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. 

GIVEN THAT 04-C IS IN FACT MOVING AT THIS TIME...THE BEST GUESS FOR
THE STEERING FLOW IS ROUGHLY THE 700-300MB LEVEL. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MEANING 04-C SHOULD CONTINUE IN AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. QUITE A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. DESPITE
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...DONT SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND 04-C TO BRING THE SYSTEM TOWARD
HAWAII...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...SO EXPECT SHEAR TO START WORKING AGAINST
THE SYSTEM. 

STILL FORECASTING 04-C TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEKEND...AFTER WHICH
TIME ANY LOW LEVEL REMNANTS AND MOISTURE WOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED AND COULD BRING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND THE COMPLEX
SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...PERSONS ACROSS
HAWAII SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS FROM CPHC. ALSO
REFER TO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM WFO HONOLULU...
AFDHFO/FXHW60 PHFO...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS HAWAII FROM THE UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM 04-C REMNANTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 14.5N 165.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.2N 164.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 162.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N 160.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER NASH