WTPA45 PHFO 132051
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042006
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 13 2006

THE AREA WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII FOR
DAYS HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PERSISTANT CONVECTION AND HAS BEEN DESIGNATED
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04-C. SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES FROM JTWC...SAB
AND HFO ALL CAME IN AT A SOLID T2.0 OR ROUGHLY 30KTS. A WELL TIMED
QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED SOME RAIN FLAGGED 35KT JUST NORTH
OF THE CENETR...SO WILL START THE SYSTEM AS A 30KT DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GIVING US FITS ALL WEEK AS IT HAS TAKEN ITS 
SLOW TIME TO DEVELOP...PROBABLY DUE TO NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY 
CENTERS WITHIN THE ITCZ...WHICH HAS BASICALLY BECOME AN EXTENSION 
OF THE WEST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. GLOBAL 
MODELS SINCE LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING A SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO 
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE STRENGTH...HOWEVER ONCE CONVECTION DID 
START TO DEVELOP ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS BEGAN TO BACK WAY OFF ON ANY 
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. THAT IS WHERE WE ARE NOW. GFDL RUNS SINCE 
WEDNESDAY DO NOTHING WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ALL DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE BASICALLY KEEP IT NEAR STATIONARY AND THEN KILL 
IT OFF.  OBSERVATIONAL DATA OBVIOUSLY SUGGEST OTHERWISE...AND AS 
SUCH THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

04-C IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN UNUSUAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST STEERING 
FLOW. GFS MODEL INDICATES THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS SO 04-C IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII AS 
IT MOVES IN A VERY STRANGE DIRECTION...EASTWARD. WITH UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH 
DEVELOPS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF HAWAII THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR 
ACROSS THE SYSTEM. SO TOMORROW WE SHOULD FIRST SEE CONVECTION BEING 
DISPLACED MORE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER THAT EXPECT 
THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO CAUSE 04-C DISSIPATE INTO 
NOTHING BUT A LOW LEVEL SWIRL. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...DONT EXPECT 
04-C TO GET ANY STRONGER. THE FORECAST IS FOR IT TO HAVE A SHORT 
LIFE AND BE GONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHARP TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 170W DIGGING 
SOUTHEAST. IT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES 
ARE QUITE LOW...THAT THE TROUGH MAY INITIALLY ASSIST IN CREATING AN 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF 04-C ALLOW IT TO FURTHER 
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...04-C MAY ALSO TRACK A 
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT. NEEDLESS TO 
SAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY ALL FOLKS ACROSS 
HAWAII.  

REFER TO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM WFO HONOLULU...AFDHFO/FXHW60 
PHFO...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER THAT THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WILL BRING TO HAWAII AND ANY EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THE 
REMNANTS OF 04-C.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 13.9N 166.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.6N 165.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.4N 163.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N 162.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER NASH