WTPA44 PHFO 270242 TCDCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032006 500 PM HST TUE SEP 26 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT ONLY ISOLATED AND SPORADIC CONVECTION EXISTS ELSEWHERE. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPOSED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND CONTINUE TO SHOW MOTION FROM WEST TO EAST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FIX POSITION. AN EARLIER ISOLATED BURST OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SHORT LIVED...AND BLOWOFF ANVIL MOVEMENT EASTWARD INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS UNDERGOING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS CONVECTION ALSO PRODUCED A VERY WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED WESTWARD. NO SUCH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...AND THIS MAY BE DUE TO A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT SEEN IN SSMI IMAGERY NEAR 15N. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR. HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS STRATEGY. SHIPS DOES BRING THE DEPRESSION TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY SST ALONG THE TRAJECTORY...WHILE SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. THE TRACK IS LITTLE CHANGED OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEAR A BLEND OF BAMS AND BAMM AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS SOUTH OF A LARGE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 30N. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.6N 178.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 12.2N 179.9E 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.8N 177.9E 30 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.4N 175.9E 30 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.8N 173.5E 30 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 14.4N 168.7E 30 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 15.5N 163.7E 30 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 16.7N 158.7E 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWNING