WTPA44 PHFO 262051
TCDCP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032006
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 26 2006

...THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAR
SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

SEVERAL KEY PIECES OF DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
LIKELY FORMED FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. INFRARED
IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWED A LARGE FLAREUP OF CONVECTION.  OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE MASS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS WAS
UNFORTUNATELY AMBIGUOUS...WITH A GENERALLY OPEN WAVE
DEPICTED...HOWEVER SOME NORTHWESTERLY FLAGS WERE EVIDENT TO THE
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS FIX POSITION.  A TAO BUOY SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM...NEAR 8N AND 180...HAS SHOWN LIGHT WEST WINDS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS...6 OBSERVATIONS...SO THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

WITH REGARD TO TRACK...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED FAIRLY
WELL...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS GENERALLY A CONSENSUS OF ALL
GUIDANCE.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST...NORTHWESTWARD UNDER A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 32N.

INTENSITY IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE
DEPRESSION...AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION. AVAILABLE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED...BUT NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 11.2N 177.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 11.5N 178.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 12.0N 179.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 12.8N 178.5E    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 13.5N 176.5E    30 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 14.3N 171.5E    30 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 15.2N 166.0E    30 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 16.3N 160.8E    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWNING