WTPA43 PHFO 202045 TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1100 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS NEVER ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE MAKE IT OR BREAK IT POINT IT REACHED LATE YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ HAD WANED YESTERDAY INTO LAST EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH TWO-C FADED QUICKER. QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED A MINIMAL CIRCULATION WITH A FEW WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MORNINGS PASS AROUND 17Z SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN TROUGH. EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY LOOPS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THUS BY DEFINITION TWO-C IS NO LONGER A LOW OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLARE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMNANTS OF TWO-C GET PUSHED WESTWARD IN THE TRADE FLOW. WITH WARM SSTS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT... THERE IS STILL SMALL PROBABILITY THAT TWO-C COULD REGENERATE. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FILLING IN TO THE SOUTH OF TWO-C...THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST BARELY ABOVE ZERO. IN ADDITION 06Z GFDL RUN HAS REALLY BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEPS IT REAL WEAK THRU DAY 5. SHIPS STILL BRINGS IT UP IN INTENSITY BUT THIS IS SOLELY BASED ON SST POTENTIAL. ALL OTHER INPUTS TO THAT BASICALLY SAY STEADY STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM HOWEVER. THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON TWO-C UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TWO-C WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN HISTORY WITH MANY OTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT FELL SHORT OF A PROMISING FUTURE. PROOF THAT DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY POWERFUL NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...IT TAKES A VERY DELICATE BALANCE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HAVE ONE ACTUALLY DEVELOP. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 11.3N 165.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 21/0600Z 11.6N 167.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 169.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER NASH