WTPA43 PHFO 201442
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022006
500 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. LATEST INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY
EXPOSED WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.0...FROM JTWC...TO
2.5 FROM SAB AND THE SATELLITE FIXES ALL SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND.
WE HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 25 KT.
 
THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS
CHANGED LITTLE. A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N 145W
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING TO 22N 180. TWO-C HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE VERY CLOSELY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST TRACK UNCHANGED...RUNNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TWO-C FAR FROM ANY INHABITED
ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS STILL SHOW TWO-C STRENGTHENING...IT HAS
BECOME HARD TO IGNORE AN OBVIOUS WEAKENING TREND. FEW TROPICAL
CYLONES BECOME AS WEAK AS TWO-C AND THEN DEVELOP INTO STRONG
SYSTEMS. DESPITE ANALYSES AND FORECASTS OF VERY WEAK SHEAR...THERE
HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH SHEAR TO PUSH DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO THE
WEST OF TWO-C. UNLESS SOMETHING HAPPENS TO REVERSE THIS TREND...
TWO-C WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 11.2N 164.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 11.8N 166.3W    25 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 12.6N 168.8W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 13.3N 171.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 13.7N 173.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W    REMNANT LOW
  
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON