WTPA43 PHFO 200856
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022006
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO HAVE COLD CLOUD
TOPS OVER THE CENTER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER VERY
PRECISELY. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 EXCEPT 2.0 FROM SAB AND THE
SATELLITE FIXES ALL SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND. TWO-C WAS ON THE WEST
EDGE OF A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 30 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE
CENTER. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.

THERE HAVE BEEN NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND TWO-C
REMAINS FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT. TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE
VERY CLOSELY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASED THE FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY TO KEEP IT IN
LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TWO-C FAR
FROM ANY INHABITED ISLANDS.

THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SEEM ADEQUATELY WARM...AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...AND
SHEAR IS NIL...BUT TWO-C HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPING VERY
RAPIDLY. WITHOUT ANY MORE CONVINCING EVIDENCE FOR MORE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 10.9N 163.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 11.6N 165.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 12.3N 167.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 13.2N 170.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 13.8N 172.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 14.2N 176.2W    50 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 14.4N 179.3W    55 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 14.8N 177.5E    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON