WTPA43 PHFO 200250
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022006
500 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006

TWO-C CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ITS EFFORT TO SPIN UP AND ATTEMPTS AT
DEVELOPING PERSISTENT RAINBANDS AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAVE THUS
FAR FAILED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...AFWA AND JTWC ARE AT T1.5
OR 25 KT.  SAB IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE HIGHER END AT T2.5.  WILL KEEP
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR GOVERNING THE TRACK OF TWO-C AND SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEYOND DAY 2 AND WILL SLOW DOWN
TWO-C A BIT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  THE UKMET
AND ECMWF ARE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN DYNAMIC MODEL OUTLIERS
RESPECTIVELY WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND NOGAPS CLUSTERED TOGETHER DOWN
THE CENTER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER DAY 2 WHICH PUSHES
THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DATELINE BY DAY 5.  THE FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUES TO KEEP TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AWAY FROM MAJOR PACIFIC
ISLANDS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST.  VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR TWO-C REMAINS LOW AND THE SST IS AT
A MORE THAN ADEQUATE 28.6C.  CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...IT WOULD
SEEM THAT THERE ARE NO MAJOR IMPEDIMENTS TO INTENSIFICATION. 
HOWEVER...TWO-C CONTINUES TO FAIL AT DEVELOPING PERSISTENT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ALL THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS NOW KEEP THE
SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 5.  SHIPS IS THE MOST
AGRESSIVE WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHILE THE GFS KILLS
TWO-C BY DAY 4.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST KNOCKS
THE MAX INTENSITY DOWN A BIT TO HAVE TWO-C BARELY REACH HURRICANE
STATUS AT DAY 4.  ADMITTEDLY...THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE
CURRENT PICTURE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 10.6N 161.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 11.0N 163.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 11.7N 166.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 13.4N 171.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.1N 174.9W    60 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 14.5N 178.1W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 179.0E    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA