WTPA43 PHFO 192046 TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006 TWO-C STILL NOT LOOKING ALL THAT ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAINLY JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. LAST HOUR OR SO HAS SEEN CONVECTION BLOW UP NEAR THE CENTER BUT ALSO ALONG SOME BANDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE SYSTEM. MOST DVORAK FIXES STILL AT T1.5 ALTHOUGH SAB GAVE US A T2.0. WILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM AT 30KT WITH THIS CYCLE. UNFORTUNATELY TWO-C IS WITHIN THE HOLE BETWEEN QUICKSCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE PASSES THIS MORNING SO NO HELP THERE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ HAS DIMINISHED EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER ABOUT 8 DEGREES AWAY NEAR 151W...TWO-C STILL HASNT MADE ITS FULL BREAK FROM THE ITCZ. IT HAS BEEN TRACKING ALMOST DUE WEST THE LAST 24 HOURS...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK CLOSER TO THE ITCZ HAS KEPT TWO-C FROM REALLY TAKING OFF AND DEVELOPING. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION DIMINISHING...CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR TWO-C TO CUT AWAY HOWEVER DONT LIKE THE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE BANDS NW AND SE OF THE CENTER...COULD TAKE AWAY FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS THE QUANDRY OF THE MOMENT...WILL TWO-C DEVELOP AND IF SO...WHEN AND HOW FAST. CERTAINLY BEEN A POINT OF DISCUSSION HERE AT CPHC THIS MORNING. ALL GLOBAL MODELS...GFS UKMET ECMWF AND NOGAPS...ALL CONTINUE TO BE SUPRISINGLY COOL WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT OF TWO-C AND IN FACT KEEP IT AT TD STRENGTH THRU 120 HRS. GFDL IS STILL SHOWING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE FINALLY HITTING HURRICANE STRENGTH 4 DAYS FROM NOW. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF THE LAST FEW RUNS AND ONLY SLOWLY BRINGS IT TO A 60KT TROPICAL STORM IN 3 DAYS. GIVEN THE SLOW START TO TWO-C AND CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY THRU 24 HRS. STILL SHOWING IT REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...BUT THAT COULD HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE FOR QUICK INTENSIFICATION IS THE ALMOST NEGLIGABLE SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE IS THE NEARNESS TO THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ISNT AS WELL FORMED AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT TOO BAD. TRACKWISE...HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEARLY ALL DYNAMIC GUIDANCE TO SHOW A MORE WESTWARD MOTION THRU 24HRS. AFTER THAT PRETTY MUCH MADE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GUIDANCE DID SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH...SO WE ARE NOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WILL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL WNW MOTION THRU 72 HOURS THEN TURN MORE WEST AND SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. GFDL STARTS MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING IT AT DAY 5. NOT SURE WHAT THAT MEANS YET...PERHAPS AN EARLY SIGNAL TO A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT NEAR THE DATELINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 10.0N 159.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 10.3N 161.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 11.1N 164.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 11.8N 167.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 12.7N 169.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 13.6N 172.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 14.1N 175.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 14.3N 177.4W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER NASH