WTPA43 PHFO 191500
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022006
500 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR TWO-C CONTINUES TO MAKE 
FINDING THE CENTER DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST ACTIVE 
CONVECTION SHIFTED DURING THE 0800 TO 1000 UTC GOES11 ECLIPSE. AT 
0800 UTC...THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ROUGHLY CENTERED CLOSE TO 
10N...BUT AT 1000 UTC THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO 
9.3N. AGENCY FIXES FROM AROUND 1200 UTC RANGED FROM 9.3N TO TO 10.0N 
LATITUDE AND FROM 158.2W TO 158.9W LONGITUDE. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON 
AS TO WHY THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD HAVE A SOUTHWARD 
DISPLACEMENT...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE LATITUDE OF 9.9N AND SELECTED 
158.4W BASED LARGELY IN PART ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE WESTWARD 
MOVEMENT.

OVERALL CONVECTION NEAR TWO-C HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. WITH ONE EXCEPTION OF 1.0...AGENCY FIXES AT 1200 UTC 
MAINTAINED A 1.5 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 25 
KNOTS. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0454 UTC SHOWED 30 KNOT 
WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WITH NO MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...HAVE PRESERVED THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 
KT.

A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY 
FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BOTH 
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FAR NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF TWO-C. DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS IN 
THE AREA WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 MPH THROUGH 48 
HOURS...THEN WEAKEN TO 10 KT. IN RESPONSE...HAVE INCREASED THE 
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF TWO-C THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT COMPENSATED WITH 
SLOWER WESTWARD MOVEMENT FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW 
WEAKENS. THE NET RESULT IS ROUGHLY A 60 NM SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 120 
HOURS. THE TRACK WAS ALSO NUDGED TO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR 
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS 
TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 10.1N 159.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 10.5N 161.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 11.1N 164.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 11.8N 166.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 13.6N 172.6W    70 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 14.2N 175.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 177.6W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON