WTPA42 PHFO 212055
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
1100 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006

HURRICANE IOKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH
AN IMPROVED EYE PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES.  SATELLITE
AGENCY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 90 KT TO 102 KT AND THE AODT ESTIMATE
CAME IN AT 110 KT.  AS A RESULT...HURRICANE IOKE HAS BEEN PUSHED UP
TO 100 KT...OR CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WHICH MAKES IT 
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  

IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT SOUTHWEST OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.  MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS...AND ALL OF THE DYNAMIC
ONES...KEEP IOKE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5. 
WITH THE INITIAL LOCATION OF IOKE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CONU FORECAST.  

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS PEAKING AT 115 KT...WHICH IS STRONGER AND
SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IOKE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AFTERWARD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIP AND ICON.  
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY
PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 13.0N 166.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.3N 167.6W   115 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.0N 169.4W   115 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 170.7W   110 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 171.7W   100 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.7N 173.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.3N 175.4W    80 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 22.8N 177.8W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA