WTPA42 PHFO 210242
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
500 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

IOKE WHICH BEGAN AS A DEPRESSION ONLY 24 HOURS AGO HAS INTENSIFIED
VERY RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE. ALTHO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITED
ITS FT TO A 3.5 THE POPPING OF AN EYE SINCE 22Z PERSUADES US
TO ELEVATE ITS INTENSITY TO HURRICANE STATUS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PERSISTENTLY WARM WATER OF
28 DEGREES C. ALSO SHEARING ALOFT IS MINIMAL AND THUS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE AS 10 KNOT SHEARING AT 72 HOURS INCREASES TO 21 KNOTS
AT 120 HOURS. THE OVERALL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHICH HAD BEEN
SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD 12 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN NUDGED BACK EASTWARD A
BIT TO JOIN THE MAJORITY MODEL CLUSTER. THIS TRACK STILL MAKES A
PASS 100 MILES AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND PLACING THAT ISLAND WITHIN
IOKES GALE OR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WIND RADII WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 11.5N 163.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 12.2N 165.8W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 13.6N 168.2W    80 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 15.0N 170.1W    85 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 171.9W    90 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 18.1N 173.4W    90 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 19.9N 174.8W    80 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 21.4N 175.9W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA