WTPA42 PHFO 201516
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
500 AM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL STORM IOKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. ITS NORTHWESTERLY PATH WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE IT OVER WARM 28 DEGREE C WATER THROUGHOUT ITS ENTIRE
PROJECTED TRACK. HOWEVER BY DAY 4 IOKE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
TRAVELING UNDER OPPOSING NORTH WINDS HIGH ALOFT INCREASING TO NEAR 
20 KNOTS OF SHEAR BY DAY 5. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ABIDE BY THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST BUT HAVE NUDGED THE PATH WESTWARD TO BE IN
GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTIPLE MODEL ARRAY...THE PREFERRED PATH 
IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED TO CONU CONSENSUS THRU 72 HOURS AND THEN THE 
GFS MODEL IN THE LATER PERIODS WHICH IS THE MOST EASTERN POSITIONED 
OF THE BUNCH. THE PATH TAKES IT ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON 
ISLAND IN 48 HOURS PLACING PJON WITHIN IOKES GALE FORCE RADII.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 10.9N 160.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 11.6N 163.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 12.8N 166.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.0N 168.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.4N 171.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.9N 174.3W    70 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 20.4N 176.1W    70 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 22.6N 177.2W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA