WTPA42 PHFO 260919 TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006 HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO PUT ON A SPECTACULAR SHOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/0530Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 6.5...OR 115 TO 127KT. 0730Z ADT ESTIMATE WAS 6.6...AND HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 130 KT. THAT SAID...RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS REACHING -78C WITH EYE TEMPS AT +4C. LARGE RING OF -72 TO -75C CLOUD TOPS NOW SURROUND THE EYE...AND THE HURRICANE IS VERY LIKELY INTENSIFYING. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS MIMIC LOOP OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS LOOKS TO BE COMPLETE...AND THE HURRICANE MAY ONCE AGAIN REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS SHORTLY. BIG ISSUE WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE 06Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE UKMET TRACK BOUNCED OFF THE DATE LINE...RESULTING IN AN ERRONEOUS MIRROR IMAGE TRACK...EASTBOUND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS THREW ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS OFF...BENDING THEM BACK SHARPLY EASTWARD. THAT SAID...HAVE BEEN FORCED TO IGNORE ALL CONSENSUS MODELS...AND GO WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMM...BAMD AND GFS. THE GFS SHOWS IOKE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AROUND 25N UNTIL IT REACHES ABOUT 170E, THEN THE ANTICYCLONE STALLS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH NEAR 155E. IOKE THEN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH...AND BEGINS A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE LAST 3 RUNS HAS BEEN TO BEGIN THE NORTHWARD TURN FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A SUBSTANTIAL MOVE TO THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR WAKE ISLAND IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT VERY NEAR THERE. AS FAR AS INTENSITY...LOOKING AT CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AROUND IOKE AND HOW IT IS RESPONDING...BY INTENSIFYING...THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES MAY BRING PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STORM ENVIRONMENT. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES AT ABOUT 150W AND 155E FLANK A HUGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE MID PACIFIC...AND IOKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE RESULTING LOW SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES WARM TO 29C ALONG THE TRACK. IF INDEED IOKE MAINTAINS CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE RECORDS SHOW THAT THIS COULD BE A WORLD RECORD FOR LONGEVITY OF A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.0N 176.9W 130 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.8N 177.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 179.5W 140 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 178.6E 140 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.6N 176.5E 140 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.6N 172.0E 140 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 18.7N 167.7E 135 KT 120HR VT 31/0600Z 21.9N 163.6E 130 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWNING