WTPA42 PHFO 260248
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
500 PM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE BUT HAS SHOWN 
A BIT OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 
WELL-DEVELOPED EYE HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH 
LESS CLOUD INTRUSION THAN WHAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER TODAY. THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRICAL. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AS 
THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE. 

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/2330Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 6.5...OR
115 TO 130KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 5.9. WE HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY TO 130 KT...STILL A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... BASED 
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND RADII AND HAVE KEEP THE 12 FT SEAS RADII A 
BIT LARGER SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING. 

THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE GFS...BAMM...AND BAMD WHICH REMAIN FARTHEST SOUTH AND WEST. 
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE 
LEFT CLOSER TO GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 
IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON BETWEEN 27/06Z 
AND 27/12Z.

MOST MODELS KEEP IOKE RATHER STRONG AND ACTUALLY SHOW SOME 
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR IS NOT INDICATED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AT 
LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE 
AND ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 29C WEST OF 180. WE NOW FORECAST ONLY 
MINOR UP AND DOWN INTENSITY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND 
KEEP INTENSITIES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST GUIDANCE VALUES.

EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY 
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY 
5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE 
SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA 
MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE 
PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR 
27.20 INCHES. THIS UNOFFICIALLY IS THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE FOR 
A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 19.3N 176.2W   130 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.3N 177.2W   125 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 178.6W   125 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 179.9E   130 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.1N 178.2E   135 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.1N 175.3E   130 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 172.7E   125 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N 170.3E   120 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE