WTPA42 PHFO 252057
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. THE 
WELL-DEVELOPED EYE HAS COOLED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE 
TO SOME CLOUD INTRUSION. THE SYSTEM WAS RATHER SYMMETRICAL AT 18Z 
BUT HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE. SHEAR DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST 
SIDE OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 25/1730Z RANGED FROM 6.0 TO 7.0...OR
115 TO 140KT. AODT ESTIMATES WERE 6.4. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY AT 140 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND RADII 
BUT HAVE INCREASED THE 12 FT SEAS OUT A BIT FURTHER DUE TO THE 
SYSTEMS SLOW MOVEMENT. 

THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE GFS...BAMS...BAMM...AND BAMD AS BEING THE OUTLIERS. LITTLE 
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH JUST A 
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT BEYOND 72 HOURS TO BETTER MATCH MODEL 
CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND 
BECOMING A TYPHOON AROUND 27/12Z.

MOST MODELS KEEP IOKE RATHER STRONG AND ACTUALLY SHOW SOME 
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 36 HOURS. SHEAR IS NOT INDICATED TO BE MUCH 
OF A FACTOR AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
REMAIN FAVORABLE AND ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR 29C WEST OF 180. WE NOW 
FORECAST ONLY MINOR UP AND DOWN INTENSITY CHANGES THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH KEEP INTENSITIES SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST GUIDANCE 
VALUES.

EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY 
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY 
5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE 
SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA 
MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE 
PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR 
27.20 INCHES. THIS UNOFFICIALLY IS THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE FOR 
A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 19.2N 175.4W   140 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.3N 176.2W   135 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.2N 177.7W   135 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.7N 179.2W   140 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.1N 179.2E   140 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.8N 176.3E   135 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 19.7N 173.5E   135 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 22.8N 171.3E   130 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE