WTPA42 PHFO 250852 TCDCP2 HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006 1100 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006 WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...IOKE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BECOME EXTREMELY POWERFUL. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM CPHC FOR 25/0530 IS T7.0...OR 140KT WITH SUBJECTIVE INTENSITIES OF 6.5 FROM JTWC AND 7.0 FROM AFWA. AODT INTENSITIES WERE 6.9 FROM CPHC AND 7.0 FROM GWC. WE HAVE BOOSTED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 140 KT...IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SATELLITE ANALYSES. WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WIND RADII AGAIN BASED ON A 0456Z WINDSAT PASS. THE MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO KEEP IT IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IOKE HAD BEEN TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST...BUT THE TRACK IS NOW BENDING TO THE WEST DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT BUILDING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES BENDING TO WEST SOUTHWEST...A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. AFTER 72 HOURS... THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO WEST NORTHWEST AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS WEST AND WEAKENS AND A TROUGH ALOFT STARTS TO DIG NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IOKE CROSSING THE DATELINE AND BECOMING A TYPHOON SHORTLY AFTER 27/06Z. WE HAVE BOOSTED THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN DUE TO THE RECENT RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY 1.1 M/S SHEAR OVR IOKE. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM... WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY AT 140 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENED IT DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 19.2N 174.5W 140 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 175.5W 140 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 19.7N 176.9W 140 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 178.1W 140 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 18.8N 179.5W 140 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 17.8N 177.8E 135 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 175.2E 135 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 21.1N 173.4E 130 KT $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON