WTPA42 PHFO 241507
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
500 AM HST THU AUG 24 2006

IOKE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CDO. THE 1121Z TRMM PASS REVEALED A WELL
DEVELOPED INNER CORE STRUCTURE WITH A CIRCULAR EYE. CLOUD TOPS
AROUND THE CENTER HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO COOL. THE T-NUMBERS FROM
PHFO...JTWC...AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T6.0 WHILE AFWA MAINTAINED
A 5.5. BASED ON THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE COMPUTES WERE SENT
WITH AN INTIAL INTENSITY AT 1200Z OF 115 KT. HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSER TO
110 KT...AND THAT WILL BE USED IN THE OFFICIAL 1500Z ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS REMAINED MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
285/6. IOKE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM
BUT REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL
GUIDANCE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...IOKE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO RESUME A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ONCE AGAIN.
 
IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH 48
HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND
WARM SSTS. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE
CHALLENGING. IOKE WILL LIKELY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT BEGINS
TO FEEL INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR FROM A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT IOKE WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN AHEAD
OF THE STRONGER SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST. WE HAVE KEPT THE
INTENSITY HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IOKE INTO THE WEST PACIFIC AS A TYPHOON
AROUND 0600Z ON THE 27TH. NOTE THAT IOKE WOULD RETAIN ITS HAWAIIAN
NAME IF IT CROSSES THE DATELINE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 18.7N 172.8W   110 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N 173.7W   110 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.6N 175.0W   105 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.7N 176.3W   105 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.7N 177.8W   100 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 179.3E    90 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 18.9N 177.0E    85 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 19.8N 174.0E    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD