WTPA42 PHFO 240256
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
500 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006

CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM CPHC..AFWA AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.0 ON THE 130
PM HST FIXES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A RAGGED...CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. FINAL T-NUMBERS ON TWO
OF THE FIXES HAD DROPPED TO 4.5 BUT IMAGERY RIGHT AFTER FIX TIME
SHOWED THE T-NUMBER BACK UP TO 5.0 AS THE EYE BECAME BETTER
DEFINED.
 
IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...TOWARDS 305 DEGREES AT 
7 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATELINE.  THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN 
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE MODELS SHOW THE TRACK CONTINUING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE 
WEST... THEN TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS TRACK SEEMS REASONABLE 
BASED ON THE UPPER AIR FORECASTS. A LOW ALOFT NEAR 33N 171E WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN NORTHWEST. AN 
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD NEAR 25N 175W AND PUSH IOKE WEST...THEN WEST
SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION TO BETTER MATCH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE LITTLE-CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNCHANGED AND LITTLE
SHEAR...INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND IOKE WILL START
WEAKENING...WITH SLOW WEAKENING CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 18.3N 171.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.8N 172.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 19.4N 173.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.9N 174.9W    90 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 20.0N 176.3W    90 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.6N 179.1W    85 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 18.2N 177.7E    75 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N 174.5E    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON