WTPA41 PHFO 260830
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 25 2006

AN 0500 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS MANY RAIN FLAGGED 25 
KT WIND BARBS...AND PRECISELY FOUR 30 KT ONES...AROUND THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF DANIEL/S WEAKENING CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS AND THE PHFO CI NUMBER OF 2.0. DANIEL 
IS CLEARLY ON ITS LAST LEGS...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN 
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN NO 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS AND THE 
LLCC WILL LIKELY BE TRACKED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE USE OF 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...A TOOL MOSTLY USED FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS 
DETECTION. 

IN GENERAL...MODELS DON/T LIKE NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEMS AND TEND TO 
WANT TO MOVE THEM IN SPITE OF REPEATED NEARLY STATIONARY 
INITIALIZATIONS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE WITH DANIEL. THE TAU 
THREE MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT...BUT DANIEL HAS BEEN ALMOST 
STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS IN SPITE OF A STRENGTHENING 1029 MB 
HIGH NEAR 40N150W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COUNTING ON LOW LEVEL STEERING 
TO PUSH DANIEL TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE CURRENT FORECAST 
GRUDGINGLY AGREES. HOWEVER...WE KEEP MOVEMENT AT 10 KT OR LESS 
THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL IS FORECAST 
TO SPEED UP TO 13 KT AS IT FINALLY DISSIPATES AT 48 HOURS. WHILE 
FOLLOWING A COMPROMISE TRACK BETWEEN GFS AND CONSENSUS 
GUIDANCE...THIS MOTION IS SLOWER THAN ALL TRACK GUIDANCE MAINLY 
BECAUSE POTENTIAL FORECAST POSITIONS WEST OF 154W AT 48 HOURS SEEM 
UNREALISTIC GIVEN RECENT PAST DANIEL MOTION. 

THERE WILL STILL BE A SHALLOW AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 
DANIEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DYNAMICS TO 
LIFT THE MOISTURE. THAT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
ALONG DANIEL/S TRACK AND SEVERELY LIMIT THIS SYSTEM/S POTENTIAL TO 
REVIVE AFTER REACHING WARMER WATERS LEE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 16.3N 142.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 16.4N 143.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.7N 145.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.2N 147.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.8N 150.0W    15 KT...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL