WTPA41 PHFO 260232
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
500 PM HST TUE JUL 25 2006

DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED. THE 0000 UTC FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE
ALL VERY CLOSE. DANIEL HAS MOVED WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS.
 
DANIEL REMAINS RATHER WEAK. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO ACTIVE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE A DATA
T-NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FIXES AT 0000 UTC RANGED FROM
2.0 TO 3.0. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
SURROUNDING THE STORM...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
 
SINCE DANIEL WILL BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM FROM NOW ON...IT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N 148W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE. DANIEL SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE LOW LEVEL 
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST 
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW DANIEL FOLLOWING A WEST NORTHWEST 
TRACK. FOR OUR FORECAST TRACK WE HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND 
CONSENSUS...WITH NO CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
DANIEL IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS DANIEL RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE WARMER WATER AT DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
NOT LIKELY. DANIEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION WILL BE WEAK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DANIEL AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WINDS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM A BIT STRONGER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED.
 
THERE WILL STILL BE A SHALLOW AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
DANIEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DYNAMICS
TO LIFT THE MOISTURE. THAT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ALONG DANIEL/S TRACK.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 16.2N 143.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 16.3N 143.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 16.7N 145.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.1N 147.6W    25 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.7N 150.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.1N 156.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 20.8N 162.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     31/0000Z 22.0N 169.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON