WTPA41 PHFO 252036
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006
 
THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS EASY TO LOCATE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA
SINCE THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 1539
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THE CENTER CLEARLY. THE 1800 UTC
FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE CLOSELY CLUSTERED. DANIEL HAS MOVED
VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

DANIEL HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO ACTIVE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE 1539 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO
WINDS STRONGER THAN 35 KT. DVORAK FIXES AT 1800 UTC RANGED FROM 2.5
TO 3.0. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND RELATIVE DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE STORM...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

SINCE DANIEL WILL BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM FROM NOW ON...IT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
1029 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N 149W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN. DANIEL SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE LOW LEVEL EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DANIEL FOLLOWING A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. FOR OUR
FORECAST TRACK WE HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONSENSUS...WITH A
TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
DANIEL IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS DANIEL RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE WARMER WATER AT DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
NOT LIKELY. DANIEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION WILL BE WEAK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DANIEL AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WINDS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM A BIT STRONGER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED. 

THERE WILL STILL BE A SHALLOW AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
DANIEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DYNAMICS
TO LIFT THE MOISTURE. THAT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ALONG DANIEL/S TRACK.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 16.2N 142.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.2N 143.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 16.4N 144.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 16.9N 146.2W    25 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N 149.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 18.6N 154.9W    25 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 161.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     30/1800Z 21.8N 167.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON