WTPA41 PHFO 251508
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
500 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006
 
BASED ON A 0800 UTC AMSU PASS...HAVE RELOCATED THE 06Z POSITION
FURTHER TO THE EAST. BLENDED IR IMAGERY...WHICH ENHANCES LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AGAINST THE OCEAN AT NIGHT...SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 1200 UTC POSITION...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE PHFO FIX...IS THE SAME AS THE FORMER 0600 UTC POSITION. DANIEL
IS NEARLY STATIONARY...HAVING SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING.

DANIEL APPEARS TO BE DRAWING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FROM THE MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH DANIEL FOR
THE PAST 12 TO 15 HOURS...MAKING DVORAK ESTIMATES DIFFICULT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF DANIEL IS SET AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A FINAL-T
OF 2.5 BY PHFO...WHICH RELIES ON DVORAK CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING.
THE JTWC AND SAB FINAL-T WERE 2.0.

WITH DANIEL NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAVING MARKEDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WAS SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWED DOWN. LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION INDICATES
A SHALLOWER SYSTEM THAT WOULD RECEIVE MORE INFLUENCE FROM LOW
LEVEL STEERING TOWARD THE WEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
GUNS CLOSELY...WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF THE GUNA...CONU...GFS AND
NOGAPS TRACKS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN 60 TO 72 HOURS. WITH DANIEL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK AND SHALLOW...THE SPEED OF DANIEL WAS INCREASED TOWARD
THE ANTICIPATED BACKGROUND TRADE WIND SPEED OF 15 TO 17 MPH. THE
DAY 4 AND 5 FORECAST POSITIONS REPRESENT ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. 

DANIEL IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK...UNDER 10 KT...ACROSS DANIEL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS
BALANCE...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT KEEP DANIEL AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH
5 DAYS. THIS TREND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE NGPI AND GFDI INTENSITY
FORECASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 16.2N 142.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.3N 143.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 16.5N 144.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 16.9N 145.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 17.4N 147.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 18.8N 153.3W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 20.1N 160.1W    35 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 21.3N 166.7W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON