WTPA41 PHFO 250912
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
1100 PM HST MON JUL 24 2006
 
THE 0409 AND 0521 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE PASSES ALONG WITH FIXES FROM 
JTWC...AFWA...SAB AND PHFO INDICATE THAT DANIEL HAS SLOWED AND 
WEAKENED THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO APPEARS 
TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED UNDER BROKEN CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS. THE 0521 
UTC SSMI 85-GHZ SHOWED THERE WAS NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE 
VICINITY OF DANIEL. DANIEL APPEARS TO BE DRAWING IN RELATIVELY 
COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLER WATERS 
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION TO 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THERE IS ALSO RATHER WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR OF 
LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS DANIEL.

THE 0600 UTC POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SATELLITE FIX 
AGENCIES AND THE MICROWAVE FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR DANIEL 
IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON A CI NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM PHFO...SAB AND 
JTWC. AFWA HAD CI OF 4.0 AND THE AODT HAD A CI OF 4.1. 

DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 
A SLOWING OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 
CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM 
WILL ACCELERATE IN 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE 72 HOUR FORECAST IS 
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE 96 
AND 120 HOUR POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
AND THESE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE 
WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST. 
ALSO...THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO TAKE DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C 
WATER THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY 
ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER AS IT NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST AT 96 
AND 120 HOURS. THEREFORE...IT IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 16.2N 142.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.3N 143.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.6N 145.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N 146.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.4N 148.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.7N 153.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 20.3N 157.8W    35 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 21.7N 164.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON