WTPA41 PHFO 250232
TCDCP1

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
500 PM HST MON JUL 24 2006
 
THE 2224 UTC AMSR INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION IN 
SPITE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED CDO SITUATION. DANIEL/S INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED ON A CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM PHFO. 
AODT HAS A CI OF 4.5 WHILE SAB AND ADT DERIVED A 3.5 VALUE. 
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DANIEL IS SUFFERING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY 
SHEAR...WITH MUCH OF THE CB MASS PUSHED FAR WEST OF THE LLCC. CLOUD 
TOPS HAVE UNIFORMLY WARMED AS WELL...JUSTIFYING THE REDUCED INITIAL 
INTENSITY. THE 64 KT WIND RADIUS WAS REDUCED TO 10 NM...WHILE THE 12 
FEET SEAS RADIUS AT TAU THREE WAS REDUCED FURTHER FROM THE 2100 UTC 
RADIUS TO MATCH THE GALE RADIUS. 

DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THIS PROMPTED A 
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE 
FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE 2100 
TRACK. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED 
TO THE RIGHT A BIT...NOW FALLING SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE FORECAST 
TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK NOW REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN 
CONSENSUS AND GFN GUIDANCE...THE NOGAPS VERSION OF GFDL...BETWEEN 
72 AND 120 HOURS. FORECAST MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS HAS BEEN 
DECREASED TO CORRESPOND TO INITIAL MOTION AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF 
GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN...FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NICELY PACKED...WITH 
GFDL...BAMD AND LBAR REPRESENTING THE RIGHT OUTLIERS. VANILLA NOGAPS 
AND GFS REPRESENT THE LEFT OUTLIERS. 

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C WATER 
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE WARMER WATER AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING LEE OF THE ISLANDS...DANIEL 
MAY PASS OVER WATER AS WARM AS 27 OR 28 DEGREES C AT 120 HOURS AND 
BEYOND. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON UW-CIMMS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND WRF 
SHOWS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. WHILE GFS NO LONGER 
WANTS TO RE-INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS...IT DOES 
MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE 
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ECHOES THIS GRADUAL 
WEAKENING...WITH DANIEL STILL AT 50 KT AT 120 HOURS.

THIS FORECAST WILL BRING DANIEL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A 
RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 16.1N 142.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.1N 143.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.4N 145.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 16.8N 146.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 17.3N 148.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.3N 152.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.6N 156.3W    50 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 21.3N 160.8W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL